Understanding historical entry grades data

What is the entry grades data?

The entry grades data uses up to three years of historical data (2022– 2024 application cycles) to show you information about the grades students held when accepted on to a course – whether they applied during Clearing or at any point in the application cycle. This is historical data so doesn’t tell you what a university or college will accept this year – but it’s there to give an indication of the grade profiles they previously accepted.

The tool is a beta – it’s the first time we’ve made this data available – and the reason we’ve done so is to support students in understanding more about the grades universities and colleges have accepted previously. It currently shows the data for 18 year old students (or younger) who were holding three UK A levels or three BTEC Extended Diplomas in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. We will continue to add more qualifications and consider how we can represent mix grade profiles – so students studying different qualifications can use it too.

You can add your grades and see what percentage of students with matching grades were accepted onto the course historically – but as the data is based on previous years it shouldn’t be used as an indication of how likely you are to get a place on a course now.

Important things to note:

We only display individual course data when at least 40 students have been placed on a course. Where this isn't possible, for example, because a course accepts fewer than 40 students, we group the data with that of similar courses to provide an indication of students accepted based on similar courses. If this occurs, we confirm it in the opening sentence on the tool. To make sure we group courses effectively we use the Common Aggregation Hierarchy.
For most providers, the top/bottom 5% of students have been removed from our course data before making our calculations on course data. This is to exclude any extraordinary circumstances that we cannot represent within the data. As such generally the data is based on 90% of the 18 year old student (or younger) population in England, Wales and Northern Ireland with the relevant qualifications – you can check this by clicking the ‘?’ symbol next to the grade profiles.
Providers can make contextual offers to students who have faced any circumstances or challenges that may have impacted education or qualifications. These types of offers are not flagged into the tool. More on contextual offers.
The data should not be used for prediction purposes because there are lots of other things considered by admissions teams e.g. interviews, subject requirements, and changing population sizes making courses more competitive. Always review the entry requirements before applying, especially if you are a mature student or applying from outside of the UK.
Where universities and colleges accept applications from students outside of UCAS and do not share the data with us, it is not included in our dataset.
Students should always check the entry requirements for courses they are applying to.

The pieces that make up the data

First, choose the qualification you want to view historical entry grade data for, either UK A level or BTEC Extended Diploma.

Once selected, the box below will update to show whether the data is specific to your chosen course or an aggregation of multiple courses. If aggregated, it will indicate the number and types of courses included. You’ll also see the date range for the data.

After that, you’ll be presented with the following key information.

1. Grades held by accepted students

This shows the range of grades held by students who were accepted on to the course for the defined data range. You can see the highest, lowest, and most common grades to give you a feel for the profile of grades students held when they were accepted previously.

Note: A level grades are presented as ‘normalised equivalents’ and may not be an exact match to the grades students had when they were accepted. In some cases, grade profiles are updated so they can be compared and averaged more easily For example a grade profile of A*A*C may be normalised to AAA.

To check the grades needed and admissions criteria for the current application cycle, check the entry requirements which sit directly above the tool.

2. Rate of offers for UK school leavers

This displays data on the number of applicants offered a place compared to the total number of applicants, shown as a percentage like 5%. It’s important to note that the offer rate is not specific to the qualification you’re viewing – it reflects the overall offer rate for all applications received by UCAS.

3. How do you compare section

This section shows the percentage of accepted applicants who achieved the BTEC Extended Diploma grades, or A level grades. It reflects the proportion of students who held a firm offer (before 30 June) or an insurance offer (if not placed at their firm choice) and were accepted onto the course during the application cycle. To ensure anonymity, non-normalised grade profiles are only used where at least ten students held the exact grades. Where fewer than ten students held the exact grades, the normalised equivalent will be used (e.g. where A*AB is not available, the equivalent grades AAA and A*A*C will also contribute as long as combined they sum to at least ten students). 100% is displayed where there are at least two normalised grade profiles that are lower in the range displaying as 100%. For example, if there is not enough data for the normalised grade profile AAA, but rates for normalised grade profiles AAB and ABB are 100%, then AAA will be populated with 100%.

If these conditions aren’t met, or the provider has chosen to suppress the normalised grade equivalency or 100% infilled grade, or if your grades are outside the range of historical data, a message will indicate that no data can be shown. However, you can still apply for the course.

Once you’ve entered your grades, the percentage will be visible in the course search grid view.

Note: This data is based on previous years and should not be used to gauge your current chances of securing a place.

Add your grades

HIstorical entry grades comparison screenshot

Click the 'Add your grades’ link
Add three grades – if you're studying more than three A levels or BTECs, pick your top three grades.
Click ‘Accept and show results’ – you’ll then be presented with the historical percentage of students who were accepted with the grades you entered.

What the entry grades data doesn't mean

You’ll get a place on the course if you have a high percentage.

You’ll get an offer if your grades are the same as the most common grades.

You can’t apply if your grades are at the lower end of the data.

The different circumstances behind the data

There are instances when certain pieces of information cannot be displayed. This section is aimed at explaining those times.

Outside of accepted range

You might come across a course where your predicted grades fall outside of the range of grades we have data for. This doesn’t mean you can’t apply for the course – universities and colleges use more than just your grades to decide whether to make you an offer.

HIstorical entry grades data out of range screenshot

Not enough data

Occasionally you might be looking at a course where we can’t show you any data. There could be a number of reasons behind this, including it being a new course.

Widening participation

When a university or college consider an application, it helps them to know if students have faced any circumstances or challenges that may have impacted education or qualifications, and in these cases they may make students contextual offers. This data is not given to UCAS so is not reflected in our tool. However, directly above the data there is a contextual admissions field where providers may signpost to more information in their policies.

Planned improvements to the historical entry grades data

Our historical entry grades data is currently in beta, and we’re eager to refine and enhance the tool based on feedback. We are making changes iteratively based on the feedback we’re receiving.

To date we’ve made the following changes:

Removing personalised percentages from the course results grid view – to ensure students only review the data alongside published entry requirements and other contextual information.
Improving the navigation to entry between qualifications: Adding a more intuitive drop-down selector for a smoother experience.
On-screen wording: We’ve updated the wording to better support students in understanding and interpreting the data, especially around ensuring it is understood that the data is historical and not an indicator of success.
Allow providers to decide whether outlier logic is applied: When the beta launched, we excluded the top and bottom 5% of student data to exclude any extraordinary circumstances. A small number of providers requested that this logic not be applied. As a result during the review windows, providers were able to choose whether the data excludes outliers. Students can learn more by clicking the ‘?’ symbol next to the grade profiles.
Updated the data range: Data spans the 2022–2024 application cycles, providing a more current view and removing pandemic years from the date range.
Lowering the minimum course data requirement: Previously the data showed only for courses with at least 50 placed students – this threshold has been reduced to 40 students. For courses with fewer than 40 students, data is aggregated or suppressed depending on the flags providers requested.
Enhanced confirmation rate information: Students entering their grades will receive more comprehensive information, to help with their decision-making.

We'll continue to monitor feedback, and plan to add more qualifications and consider how we can represent mix grade profiles, to improve transparency for students.

Give us your feedback

As the tool is in beta, we're keen to receive feedback to improve it. If you've added your grades to the tool, you may be asked to complete a short survey, which will help us understand how you found your experience. Alternatively, you can use the Feedback tab, located on each page of our website, to share your views.

Terms and conditions

Entry grade data

UCAS website terms and conditions apply to your use of the entry grade data. The entry grade data has been designed for A level students wishing to apply to universities and colleges, providing them with historic information based on historical data from 2019 – 2023. It is not a likelihood of success in applying to particular universities or colleges for admission to particular courses of study.

Universities offers are not solely based on A level achievement, but also include other factors which are not taken into account in the entry grade data. The results returned by the entry grade data can therefore only ever be a guide and we offer no guarantee that the likelihood of you receiving an offer will be the likelihood predicted by the entry grade data and do not constitute any form of advice or recommendation upon which a specific decision should be made.