What does the data say about upcoming demand?
UCAS is projecting that international undergraduate applicants could increase by 60% to reach 241,500 by 2030 – with confidence ratings suggesting a growth of between 30% (+195,500) and 105% (+308,750). Beneath this headline figure, there are some fascinating nuances. As you’d expect, and aligned to modelling led by the Chinese digital marketing company, Sinorbis, China is set to remain the largest non-UK market for UK HE. Since 2020 China now has more applicants than two UK countries, namely, Wales and Northern Ireland).iii Indeed, looking at international school populations alone, where the language of instruction is English, more than 60% are found in Asia – a clear indicator of the popularity of overseas study.iv
However, data and local intelligencev suggests that the rate of growth will slow. At UCAS’ January 2023 equal consideration, applications from China declined for the first time (-4.2%), most likely due to disrupted learning and school assessment amid ‘Zero-COVID’ lockdowns.vi Nonetheless, all signs suggest that the UK remains a top choice for Chinese students studying abroad and education quality in the UK is widely recognised.vii That’s why it’s possible that 2030 will see applicant numbers exceed 50,000 (+52%) – more than total numbers who today apply from Wales and Northern Ireland combined, making China the second largest source market for UK HE – overtaking Scotland.
Elsewhere, the trajectory for Indian applicants (an International Education Strategy (IES) priority country) is of a faster rate of growth, with demand set to reach around 40,000 (+175%) by 2030 – just 10,000 shy of those coming from China.viii Of additional note among the IES priority countries are Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, with demand set to climb significantly to reach 13,300 (+115%) and 7,000 (+233%) respectively.
Whilst EU recruitment has fallen by more than 50% following the UK’s departure from the EU, UCAS data suggests that the 2022 cycle saw the last notable drop in appetite. The remainder of the decade is likely to see a steadying of demand of between 18,000 – 24,000 EU applicants over the next few years. Thereafter, we could see a tale of two EUs, with applicants still applying from more economically developed nations, with minimal demand from newer EU members.