Designing a flexible HE sector to deliver economic growth
The take-home, then, is clear: we should think about skills needs in a dynamic, not a static, way. And the expansion of HE should play a central part in any strategy for future growth.
This message should resonate now more than ever as we face the toxic concoction of economic travails served up by Brexit, Covid and now rampant inflation. Get this right and the prize could be substantial — for instance, if we raise the HE participation rate to 70%, our economy could be around 4.5 per cent larger by 2050, generating some £57bn more in tax receipts.xi
None of this is to say that any old expansion will do. Instead, achieving these potential rewards rests on meeting the specific needs of our emerging economy. And framed in those terms, our current system does sometimes fall short.
For instance, the HE system is arguably too inflexible and will need to adapt to a future student population that may be older, lacking conventional entry qualifications and needing to combine study with work.
In the context of this challenge, the government’s proposed Lifelong Loan Entitlement, which would extend the range of student finance and offer more flexibility, is a sensible proposition. However, a deft touch will be required to make it work. For instance, policy makers will need to resolve the many snags that could prevent the smooth transfer of modules between institutions.
More degree apprenticeships, too, would diversify routes into HE. But for this to happen, the government needs to help boost supply, including by emulating previous market-maker initiatives. And more should be done to improve access for disadvantaged individuals, who are less likely to undertake degree apprenticeships than well-off peers.
As well as addressing the lack of flexibility in the system, we also can’t dismiss the problem of poor returns for some courses. And some universities and colleges could do a better job of blending different types of knowledge and combining hard and soft skills.
But where challenges exist, policy makers should refine the system in measured ways rather than countenance blunt instruments like student number controls.
Given the role education has played in rescuing economic growth from an otherwise grim prognosis, and the prevailing wind when it comes to the skills employers prize, the direction we should take is clear. We should be mindful of how we do it, but we should craft an ambitious project for expanding higher education in the years to come.
iHouse of Commons Library (2022), Higher education student numbers.
iiIbid.
iiiTony Blair Institute (2022), We don’t need no education? The case for expanding higher education.
ivSee, for example: Wilson, R et al. (2020), Working Futures 2017-2027: Long –run labour market and skills projections for the UK.
vCominetti, N et al. (2022), Changing jobs? Change in the UK labour market and the role of worker mobility.
viOECD (2017), Skills Outlook.
viiWorld Economic Forum (2016), The Future of Jobs.
viiiEU Commission (2019), The changing nature of work in the digital age.
ixMcKinsey (2018), Skill shift: Automation and the future of the workforce.
xSee, for example: Department for Business Innovation and Skills, (2013), BIS research paper no.146: The benefits of higher education participation for individuals and society: key findings and reports.
xiTony Blair Institute (2022), We don’t need no education? The case for expanding higher education.